Study Predicts 54 Million Self-Driving Cars Worldwide by 2035

Jan 02, 2014 03:15 PM EST | Jordan Ecarma

Around 54 million self-driving cars will be on roads worldwide by 2035, according to a new study from IHS Automotive.

By that same year, annual sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 12 million, the research firm predicted. Even though self-driving cars likely won't be on roads until at least 2020, the study predicts that by 2050, nearly all of both personal and commercial vehicles will be autonomous, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The study projects that global sales of self-driving vehicles will rise from around 230,000 in 2025 to 11.8 million in 2035, the outlet reported.

But not all driving will be a hands-free experience yet. Of those vehicles, seven million will allow both driver and autonomous control, while the other 4.8 million cars will be totally autonomous, according to the IHS study.

Self-driving cars are believed to be substantially safer, so the rise in autonomous vehicles could mean far fewer driving-related deaths.

"Accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs," said Egil Juliussen, a principal analyst for infotainment and autonomous driver-assisted systems at IHS Automotive and co-author of the IHS study.

He added that "as the market share of SDCs on the highway grows, overall accident rates will decline steadily."

The study predicted that North America will have the highest number of SDCs in 2035, when 29 percent of vehicles on the continent are expected to have self-driving capabilities. China and Western Europe will follow with around 24 percent and 20 percent, respectively.

Two major obstacles to the implementation of self-driving technology are cost and safety. Fully autonomous driving will become available first in the luxury car realm before it spreads to less expensive vehicles.

Many have raised concerns that self-driving technologies can easily become prey to hackers, something the IHS study acknowledged.

"There is no question that electronics of the car will become a target for malicious hacking attacks," the study said. "Every auto manufacturer needs to take cyber security seriously--which has not been a focus in the past."

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