European Sales Rising from Six-Year Slump But Won't Reach Peak Again, Analysts Say

Jan 16, 2014 10:15 AM EST | Jordan Ecarma

Analysts are cautiously optimistic that the long-time slump in European car sales has ended after a rise last month.

2013 marked the sixth year of shrinking sales and the European car market's longest slump ever, The Associated Press reported.

At the beginning of last year, automakers steeled themselves for further market losses, expecting a drop of as much as 5 percent.

While car sales in the European Union shrank 1.7 percent in 2013 to 11.8 million, a jump in December mitigated the losses.

The market rose over a four-month period, culminating in an unexpected 13.3 percent increase in December.

"I think the improvement in the fourth quarter was not anticipated by most," Sascha Gommel, an auto analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, told the AP. "I am also surprised by the magnitude."

According to the European automaker's association, industry sales fell to the lowest level since 1995, which was also a 26 percent contraction from 2007 right before the economy slumped.

The market is likely to grow 3 percent this year, according to Commerzbank forecasts. But European automakers aren't in the clear yet.

It would be a mistake "to consider that, from now on, after four months of continuous growth, the EU market is out of the woods and back on track as if nothing had happened," Carlos Da Silva of IHS Automotive told the AP.

Several factors also helped to fill out December numbers, including dealer incentives, carmaker's strategic sales to reach targets and an additional working day compared with a year earlier.

Recovery will come slowly especially in the next few months, Allan Rushforth, the chief operating officer for Hyundai Motor Europe, told the AP.

The European car market peaked at 16 million in sales in 2007. The IHS does not expect the market to return that height again and predicts that reaching 2008 sales of 14.7 million will take 10 years.

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