U.S. Auto Sales Expected to Reach Decade High in 2015

TrueCar, Inc. announced this week that it expects a "healthy" U.S. auto industry in 2015 with sales of new vehicles rising at least 2.6 percent to 17 million units.

If their data is correct, it would be the highest level since 2005.

"We see a convergence of favorable economic circumstances pushing auto demand up to pre-recession levels, including continued gains in the job market, the best consumer sentiment in eight years and low fuel prices," said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar in a company statement. "This year has been remarkable in terms of growth and revenue coming from big gains in pickup, utility and luxury vehicle sales. We think 2015 will be even better."

Total market sales should rise 3.4 percent to 55.4 million units over 54 million this year. This results in $1.2 trillion of revenue based on average transaction prices, according to TrueCar data. 

Based on transaction prices, new vehicle revenue should reach $553 billion in 2015, a 5 percent increase over the $526 billion generated from an estimated 16.5 million new vehicle sales this year.

TrueCar data shows that the average transaction price (ATP) of new vehicles next year will likely rise around 2.4 percent to a new record $32,589. The used vehicle ATP could increase 2.1 percent to $16,678 in 2015.

Used vehicle volume will grow 3.8 percent to 38.4 million units, up from 37 million in 2014.

Luxury auto purchases are expected to lead growth with a 9.8 percent segment increase, which could rise to around $116.7 billion in 2015, compared to $106.3 billion this year.

TrueCar expects non-luxury utility vehicles to rise 5 percent to $192.1 billion, and pickup trucks should reach somewhere around $95.7 billion, a 4.5 percent increase.

"Ford's redesigned F-Series pickups, Mazda's CX-3 crossover as well as the Mercedes GLA luxury crossover should be standout models in their respective segments next year," Krafcik added.  "Mass-market cars, pickups, utility vehicles and premium autos-the four 'Super Segments' TrueCar identified previously--will grow next year, though cars will cede market share as more consumers move to utilities and luxury."